In collaboration with
The course “Disruption Futures” addresses the volatile, ambiguous, and uncertain nature of today’s global economy, influenced by structural forces and trends in our social, technological, economic, environmental, political, legal, and ethical environment (STEEPLE). It introduces scenario-based foresight as a strategic leadership tool to explore alternative futures, and convert the uncertainty in them into opportunity horizons, allowing executives to make more robust strategic decisions and build more resilient portfolios of programs, products and investments. 5-6 groups of participants will focus on one strategic futures challenge each, the teams will develop a set alternative futures for the challenge and one resulting integrated portfolio of robust strategic options, actions, programs or investments against all futures.
Prof of Practice
UC Berkeley Haas School of Business
CEO, Cambrian Futures
Olaf Groth is a Global Strategist, Entrepreneurial Executive, Thinktank Founder, Advisor and Author for Disruption Forces & Futures in the Global Economy. He has 30 years of experience as an executive and adviser building strategies, capabilities, programs and ventures across 35+ countries with multinationals (e.g. AirTouch, Boeing, Chevron, GE, Qualcomm, Q-Cells, Vodafone, Volkswagen, etc.), consultancies, startups, VCs, foundations, governments and academia. He is the founding CEO of advisory thinktank Cambrian Futures and of concept development firm Cambrian Designs. Olaf teaches across the US, Europe, Middle East, Africa, South East Asia and China as Professor of Practice for global foresight, strategy, innovation, economics at UC Berkeley’s Haas School of Business and Faculty Director for the Berkeley Executive Education program Future of Technology. He is a Sr. Adviser and Executive-in-Residence at Berkeley’s Institute for Business Innovation, Visiting Scholar at UC Berkeley’s Roundtable on the International Economy (BRIE) , and a Venture Adviser at Berkeley Skydeck. Olaf is also an Adjunct Professor at Hult International Business School, a member of the Global AI Governance Alliance and of the Global Expert Network at the World Economic Forum, and a contributor to IEEE’s Global Initiative on Ethics for Autonomous & Intelligent Systems.…Olaf is lead co-author of a most recent book on the future of Globalization, The Great Remobilization: Strategies & Designs For A Smarter Future (MIT Press, Oct. 17th, 2023) and of the AI book Solomon’s Code: Humanity in a World of Thinking Machines (Pegasus, 2018) and its 2021 paperback version The AI Generation: Shaping Our Global Future With Thinking Machines. He is a frequent commentator on ABC News, CBS News, Fox News, NPR and Bloomberg TV, the Chris Voss Show (USA), Conversations that Matter (Canada), Deutsche Welle, ARD and ZDF (Germany), CAN and MoneyFM89.3 (Singapore), CGTN (China) and contributor for outlets like WIRED, Financial Times, Straits Times, The Hill, Harvard Business Review (USA, Germany, France, Italia, Spain, Arabia), California Management Review, Quartz, Wirtschaftswoche, Handelsblatt, FOCUS, Die Zeit, World Economic Forum, Huffington Post, Peter Drucker Forum, LSE, Today’s CFO, Thunderbird International Business Review, World Financial Review, European Business Review, Roubini EconoMonitor, and Duke CE Dialogue.
Olaf holds PhD & MALD degrees in global affairs with business, economics and technology focus from the Fletcher School at Tufts University, MAIPS & BA degrees with economics focus from the Middlebury Institute at Monterey, studied negotiation at Harvard, economics at Georgetown, finance at Berkeley, and strategic leadership at the Center for Creative Leadership.
VP Analysis & Operations Cambrian Futures
UC Berkeley Executive Education
Tobias Straube is a speaker, aanalyst, advisor, and entrepreneur at the interface of DeepTech, business and government with 10+ years working experience in Europe, Middle East, Africa, Latin America, Asia, and USA. He has led and co-designed international strategy and research projects, including an analysis of thirteen national AI strategies and an assessment of the global data sphere, an assessment of the digital economy in the UAE, the development of an AI strategy for a mid-sized company, a case study on Baidu Apollo, and the development of an AI governance checklist for legal advisors in collaboration with LexMundi and Microsoft Europe, to name a few. He has also co-authored 8 patents on data protection management and data marketplaces and has contributed to the National AI Strategy Framework of the Responsible Tech Project of the World Economic Forum.
Complete course pre-work
11-13 December 2023
9:00 AM–5:00 PM
Emirates Towers, 3D Office
Government executives – General Executive Management – Strategy, Innovation, Product, or Program Management roles.
- Welcome & Intro
- Relevance – Why do we need foresight on disruption?
- Leaders’ biases and assumptions resulting in missed opportunity to foresee disruption.
- Guiding principles of strategic foresight.
- Thought-provocation on the future of globalization 2035.
- Identifying drivers of and forces of disruption.
- Converting Drivers into High-Priority Critical VUCA Disruption Forces.
- Using the Critical Forces bound futures exploration spaces.
- Constructing a matrix of alternative disruption futures
- Crafting disruption future history narratives.
- Mapping implications for actor ecosystems in industries, domains, or economies.
- Designing and giving a strategic futures presentation with concrete high level action paths.
Content and Outcomes
By the end of the module, the candidates will be able to:
- Describe and prioritize global disruption trends and forces to develop coherent alternative future hypotheses for a given market or arena.
- Demonstrate the ability to anticipate power shifts in industries and arenas, staying ahead of competitors and potential disruptors.
- Identify and critically evaluate strategic options for creating or pre-empting disruption, building resilience, and increasing potential for success across different market or domain futures.
- Apply scenario-based foresight and/or back-casting frameworks, integrating industry vector analysis and strategy frameworks to craft high-level portfolios of strategic moves and innovation programs.
- Practice presenting immersive future-based strategies to executives and identify early indicators of change for proactive decision-making.
By the end of the module, the candidates will be able to:
- Greater speed and efficacy of strategic decision making
- Future-proof policies, de-risk and increase ROI on programs or investments,
- More effective communication on the need and path to convert uncertainties into opportunities
- Greater buy-in by stakeholders on the recommended action paths
Participant will be awarded a certificate upon completion.
For any support and inquiries, please contact: [email protected]