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Methods for scenario planning

In collaboration with


Given the extreme uncertainty about our world, how can any organisation develop plans meaningfully? One way is to employ scenarios – different relevant, plausible, contrasted, and challenging worlds that we may have to live in – as a means to craft and test our strategic options. This course will show the steps in such a scenario planning process, including how to generate strategic alternatives and wind tunnel them to ensure that strategies are robust. Moreover, various scenario methods will be mentioned, and we will see how AI can be employed to shorten or reinforce the process.


Adrian Taylor
Founder – 4Sing (ForeSight to Strategy for Security and Sustainability in Governance) GmbH 

Adrian has over 30 years of experience working on foresight. He started as a scenario planner in 1992 when working for a joint venture with Global Business Network whilst based in Brussels (1993). After stints working in the European Commission and in Academia (Georgia Tech, Atlanta), he joined a software company making tools for scenario and strategy work. In 2008 he then founded 4Sing as a vehicle to support the Government of the Republic of Singapore in setting up its “Risk Assessment and Horizon Scanning” programme, where Adrian helped determine and template the methods used, as well as training staff and backstopping the Prime Minister’s Office. Since then, Adrian (and now also his colleagues) have helped clients develop their own in-house foresight to strategy capacities and run strategy processes for clients, as well as moderating knowledge exchange events and conferences. He has experience in using many methods, from Design Thinking through to Scenario writing and leverages Open-Source Intelligence and software tools such as 4Strat and the Parmenides Eidos™ decision-making tool suite, which both support (but not in any way replacing) human reasoning to anticipate future changes in the world, as well as to develop robust strategies and monitoring tools to evaluate the implementation of the strategies.


Delivery Format:


15 – 16 Oct 2024

9:00 AM – 4:00 PM

3D Printed Office, Emirates Towers, Dubai, UAE

Target Audience:
First experience of foresight, Strategists who want to see how scenarios can add value to their work.


AED 4,700
Per Participant


Day 1
  • Identify why foresight and scenarios are useful
  • Choose real-life subjects to work on during the course
  • Identify key strategic focus questions
  • Pick driving forces affecting these strategic questions
  • Develop scenarios using Morphological Analysis
Day 2
  • Complete the scenarios built using Morphological Analysis
  • Create scenarios using alternative methods (2X2, AI, actor scenarios)
  • Develop various strategic options, including inspiration from the scenarios
  • Wind Tunnel the various strategies for robustness when faced with the scenarios
  • Identifying learnings and where to apply them

Learning Objectives and Outcomes

Learning Objectives

  • Explain step-by-step what needs to be done in a scenario planning process.
  • Develop a strategy that has been tested for robustness against various scenarios, thus applying the scenario planning process in practice.
  • Identify the advantages that apply to scenario planning methods.

Learning Outcomes

  • Outline what scenario planning achieves and what steps are involved.
  • Gain foresight/strategy content insights into issues that participants in the room are working on.
  • Identify what issues a scenario planning approach can be used for in your organisation.


For any support and inquiries, please contact: [email protected]